Tuesday 17 November: 22 over 1.5 goals tips today, average chance 70%. Top tip: Israel vs Austria – Over 1.5 goals at 78%.
Games we expect to see at least two goals. Best tips at the top – open any match to read the full analysis.
Israelvs
AustriaWith a combined 2.8 expected goals (Israel 0.9, Austria 1.9), the numbers lean to goals. That makes it a 78% chance by our model. The price is short at 1.17, so this works best as part of a double or acca.
Full analysis
Polandvs
SwedenWe expect around 2.8 goals in total, comfortably above the 1.5 line. That makes it a 78% chance by our model. The price is short at 1.19, so this works best as part of a double or acca.
Full analysis
Walesvs
PortugalBoth sides together project to 2.7 goals, comfortably over 1.5. Our model puts this at 78%. The price is short at 1.18, so this works best as part of a double or acca.
Full analysis
Malawivs
EgyptWith a combined 2.9 expected goals (Malawi 0.7, Egypt 2.2), the numbers lean to goals. We land on 78% for the over. At 1.22 there is little value on its own – better as a building block.
Full analysis
UruguayPrimera División Apertura1›
EnglandNon League Premier Southern South1›22 matches on Tuesday 17 November qualify for this market today, averaging 70%. The strongest still to play is Israel vs Austria (UEFA Nations League): Over 1.5 goals at 78%, priced at 1.17. Most picks come from Africa Africa Cup Of Nations Qualification (11), Europe UEFA Nations League (7), England Non League Premier Southern South (2). 1 of them are priced above our fair odds, so they also offer value.
Over 1.5 goals wins if the match has at least two goals in total.
2–0, 1–1 and 3–2 all win; 0–0 and 1–0 lose. Prices are low – typically 1.15 to 1.45.
We choose games where our model expects around 2.6 goals or more and the bookmakers agree. Tense knockout ties are where it most often fails.
Every percentage comes from ScoreVoro's grid of likely scores, which is built each night from our team ratings and expected goals and adjusted with the bookmakers' lines folded in for late team news. When a bookmaker offers more than our fair price (100 divided by the percentage), the tip is value as well. Read the full method on how it works.
Rather take a whole slip? Our daily slips are ready to copy. For longer odds see the value spots, or jump to another market.
Two or more goals scored by either team.
Because it wins often; a single 1–0 can cancel out several wins.
From our ratings model: every team's attack and defence feed a goals forecast for each fixture, which we compare with market odds. This page lists our over 1.5 goals tip for every match with odds, strongest first.
It is our chance of the tip winning. Divide 100 by it for the fair odds – 70% gives 1.43 – and any bigger price is value.
Yes. Every tip is settled won or lost on the 90-minute score, and yesterday's list stays on the Yesterday tab.
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