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Europe: UEFA Nations League· A. Le Coq Arena Kick-off

Estonia vs Bulgaria prediction

EstoniaWDWDD
Mon 16 Nov 2026 xG 1.27 – 0.64
BulgariaLWLDL
ScoreVoro predictionHome 1–0Medium
Best tip1X77% chance · @1.25
Goals1.9 expectedOver 2.5 34% · BTTS 47%
1 · Estonia2.0550% chanceX · Draw3.2527% chance2 · Bulgaria3.8023% chance
Tips by · ScoreVoro analystUpdated 16 Nov 2026, 00:23 WAT · Every tip graded on our track record
Our tip

1X

Strong · fair odds 1.30

77%chance1.25odds8/10rating

Why we like it: Estonia look unlikely to lose this one – we price 'win or draw' at 77%. At 1.25 there is little value on its own – better as a building block.

Tips by market

Result150% · @2.05
Double chance1X77% · @1.25
Both teams scoreNG53% · @1.62
GoalsUnder 3.583% · @1.17
Correct scoreCS 1–019%

Estonia vs Bulgaria prediction, form & predicted score

The fixture

Estonia v Bulgaria, UEFA Nations League – Monday 16 November, 18:00 WAT at A. Le Coq Arena. Here is how the ScoreVoro model sees it. Estonia come in 2nd with 9 points and Bulgaria 3rd with 4.

Current form

Estonia – last 5: WDWDD Latest result: they beat Luxembourg 1–0 (away). Home form in that spell: 2 wins, 0 defeats in 3. A thin 0.7 goals per game – the goals have dried up. 5 clean sheets – a defence that is tough to crack.

Bulgaria – last 5: LWLDL Latest result: they fell to Iceland 0–5 (home). Away form in that spell: 1 win, 1 defeat in 3. A thin 0.8 goals per game – the goals have dried up.

Form edge: Estonia, with 2.0 points per game to 0.8.

Head to head

Previous meeting (29 Sep 2026): Bulgaria 0–0 Estonia.

Goals outlook

ScoreVoro expected goals: Estonia 1.3 – 0.6 Bulgaria, about 1.9 in total. This shapes up as a tight one – under 2.5 at 66%.

Markets to consider

  • 1X2 chances: Estonia 50%, draw 27%, Bulgaria 23%.
  • Double chance option: Estonia or draw – 77% at 1.25.
  • GG/NG: no – 53% at 1.62.

ScoreVoro tip

Our pick: Estonia or draw (77% chance, priced 1.25). Predicted score: Estonia 1–0 Bulgaria. Graded on the 90-minute score. A tip is a probability, not a promise – 18+, bet responsibly.

Result chances

Estonia50%fair 2.00 · @2.05
Draw27%fair 3.75 · @3.25
Bulgaria23%fair 4.31 · @3.80
1.91Expected goals
1.27Estonia xG
0.64Bulgaria xG
47%Both score
34%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–019%
0–015%
1–112%
2–012%
0–110%
2–18%

From our goals model: Estonia 1.3 – 0.6 Bulgaria expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

Team ratings

EstoniaBulgaria
Attack vs UEFA Nations League average-23%-19%
Goals conceded vs average-42%+30%
Our expected goals here1.350.60

Our own ratings from every UEFA Nations League result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match result150%2.002.05
Double chance1X77%1.301.25
Both teams to scoreNG53%1.891.62
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.560%1.681.50
Over/under 2.5 goalsUnder 2.566%1.511.50
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.583%1.201.17
Half-time resultHT X50%1.99–
Half-time / full-time1/130%3.33–
Correct scoreCS 1–019%5.32–

Recent results

Estonia – last 6

WDWDDW
13 Nov@ Luxembourg1–0W
6 Octvs Iceland0–0D
3 Octvs Luxembourg1–0W
29 Sep@ Bulgaria0–0D
26 Sep@ Iceland1–1D
6 Junvs Faroe Islands1–0W
0.7Scored / game
0.2Conceded / game
17%Both scored
0%Over 2.5

Bulgaria – last 6

LWLDLD
13 Novvs Iceland0–5L
6 Oct@ Luxembourg2–0W
3 Oct@ Iceland0–3L
29 Sepvs Estonia0–0D
26 Sepvs Luxembourg1–2L
5 Jun@ Moldova2–2D
0.8Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
33%Both scored
67%Over 2.5

Head to head

29 Sep 2026Bulgaria v Estonia0–0
Estonia vs Bulgaria head-to-head page →

UEFA Nations League table

#TeamPWDLGDPts
1Iceland5320+1111
2Estonia5230+29
3Bulgaria5113-74
4Luxembourg5104-63

More UEFA Nations League predictions

League hub
KazakhstanSlovakia X2 1.22 81%
Faroe IslandsMoldova Under 3.5 1.22 75%
LithuaniaLiechtenstein Under 3.5 1.36 75%
IcelandLuxembourg Over 1.5 1.22 76%
GermanyNetherlands Under 3.5 1.80 62%
GreeceSerbia Over 1.5 1.22 77%
GibraltarMalta Under 3.5 1.20 81%
SwitzerlandScotland 1X 1.20 82%

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Estonia vs Bulgaria?

Our tip is Estonia or draw (77% chance), priced at 1.25.

Who will win Estonia vs Bulgaria?

Estonia win 50% of the time on our model, the draw 27%, Bulgaria 23%.

How many goals will there be in Estonia vs Bulgaria?

Around 1.9 goals on our projection – 34% for over 2.5 and 47% for both teams to score.

What is the predicted score for Estonia vs Bulgaria?

ScoreVoro predicts Estonia 1–0 Bulgaria. Total goals projected: 1.9.

When is Estonia vs Bulgaria?

Estonia vs Bulgaria (UEFA Nations League) kicks off on Monday 16 November 2026 at 18:00 (West Africa Time) at A. Le Coq Arena.

Numbers from ScoreVoro's team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.