Tuesday 17 November: 5 home wins tips today, average chance 60%. Top tip: Canada vs Guatemala – Canada to win at 66%.
Home sides our ratings expect to win – the strongest at the top. Best tips at the top – open any match to read the full analysis.
Canadavs
GuatemalaCanada carry the stronger numbers here, with an expected 2.1 goals against 1.1 for the opposition. At 1.12 there is little value on its own – better as a building block.
Full analysis
EFL Trophy
#2 
Lutonvs
PeterboroughLuton rate as the better side on attack and defence alike – 2.5 expected goals for, 1.1 against. Luton are unbeaten in their last four (3 wins), while Peterborough's last three have brought no wins. At 1.52 the market agrees with us, so this is a solid rather than spectacular price.
Full analysis
Bosnia & Herzegovinavs
RomaniaBosnia & Herzegovina carry the stronger numbers here, with an expected 2.0 goals against 1.1 for the opposition. Bookmakers offer 1.90 against our fair price of 1.74 – a genuine edge.
Full analysis
Martiniquevs
ArubaMartinique carry the stronger numbers here, with an expected 1.5 goals against 1.4 for the opposition. At 1.16 there is little value on its own – better as a building block.
Full analysis5 matches on Tuesday 17 November qualify for this market today, averaging 60%. The strongest still to play is Canada vs Guatemala (CONCACAF Nations League): Canada to win at 66%, priced at 1.12. Most picks come from North & Central America CONCACAF Nations League (3), England EFL Trophy (1), Europe UEFA Nations League (1). 1 of them are priced above our fair odds, so they also offer value.
These are the home teams our numbers expect to win – the sides with the clearest edge on their own ground.
The tip wins only if the home side wins inside 90 minutes. A draw is a loss.
The strongest picks combine a big rating advantage, good recent home form and a visitor that struggles on the road.
Every percentage comes from ScoreVoro's grid of likely scores, which is built each night from our team ratings and expected goals and adjusted with the bookmakers' lines folded in for late team news. When a bookmaker offers more than our fair price (100 divided by the percentage), the tip is value as well. Read the full method on how it works.
Rather take a whole slip? Our daily slips are ready to copy. For longer odds see the value spots, or jump to another market.
They do not – it simply means our model rates their chance highly. Upsets still happen.
Every home side with a strong enough chance on the day.
From our ratings model: every team's attack and defence feed a goals forecast for each fixture, which we compare with market odds. This page lists our home wins tip for every match with odds, strongest first.
It is our chance of the tip winning. Divide 100 by it for the fair odds – 70% gives 1.43 – and any bigger price is value.
Yes. Every tip is settled won or lost on the 90-minute score, and yesterday's list stays on the Yesterday tab.
Trinidad and Tobago
Antigua and Barbuda