Tuesday 17 November: 23 under 3.5 goals tips today, average chance 70%. Top tip: Hungary vs Northern Ireland – Under 3.5 goals at 85%.
Matches unlikely to go past three goals. Best tips at the top – open any match to read the full analysis.
Hungaryvs
Northern IrelandWe project only 1.8 goals in total (Hungary 0.9, Northern Ireland 0.8). That makes it a 85% chance by our model. At 1.18 the market agrees with us, so this is a solid rather than spectacular price.
Full analysis
Rep. Of Irelandvs
KosovoWe project only 2.1 goals in total (Rep. Of Ireland 1.2, Kosovo 0.9). That makes it a 82% chance by our model. At 1.18 the market agrees with us, so this is a solid rather than spectacular price.
Full analysis
Ukrainevs
GeorgiaNeither side is expected to run up a score – 1.8 goals combined. Our model puts this at 81%. The 1.28 on offer is close to fair for a 81% chance.
Full analysis
Ethiopiavs
MozambiqueWe project only 2.2 goals in total (Ethiopia 1.1, Mozambique 1.1). Our model puts this at 81%. The price is short at 1.17, so this works best as part of a double or acca.
Full analysis
PortugalLiga Revelação U231›
EnglandEFL Trophy1›EnglandNon League Premier Southern South1›23 matches on Tuesday 17 November qualify for this market today, averaging 70%. The strongest still to play is Hungary vs Northern Ireland (UEFA Nations League): Under 3.5 goals at 85%, priced at 1.18. Most picks come from Europe UEFA Nations League (8), Africa Africa Cup Of Nations Qualification (7), North & Central America CONCACAF Nations League (3). 4 of them are priced above our fair odds, so they also offer value.
Under 3.5 goals wins with three goals or fewer.
1–0, 2–1 and 3–0 win; 2–2 and 3–1 lose. Prices are usually 1.15 to 1.40.
Suits games with no standout attack and at least one reliable defence.
Every percentage comes from ScoreVoro's grid of likely scores, which is built each night from our team ratings and expected goals and adjusted with the bookmakers' lines folded in for late team news. When a bookmaker offers more than our fair price (100 divided by the percentage), the tip is value as well. Read the full method on how it works.
Rather take a whole slip? Our daily slips are ready to copy. For longer odds see the value spots, or jump to another market.
Three goals or fewer.
It wins more often but pays less.
From our ratings model: every team's attack and defence feed a goals forecast for each fixture, which we compare with market odds. This page lists our under 3.5 goals tip for every match with odds, strongest first.
It is our chance of the tip winning. Divide 100 by it for the fair odds – 70% gives 1.43 – and any bigger price is value.
Yes. Every tip is settled won or lost on the 90-minute score, and yesterday's list stays on the Yesterday tab.
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