Value bets yesterday

Yesterday's value bets at a glance

150 value bets with average odds of 2.29 and an average edge of 22% over the bookmakers. The biggest edge: Didcot Town vs Slough Town – Draw at 3.74 – our chance is 54% while the odds imply 27%. 6 are draws, the outcome bookmakers most often price too long.

At average odds of 2.29 you need about 44% winners to break even. In the last 30 days our value bets won 1,899 of 4,389 (43%). Value betting pays off over hundreds of bets, so do not judge it on one day.

Staking value bets

• Keep stakes small and equal – around 1–2% of your betting bank.
• Bet them as singles; putting them together multiplies the risk.
• If the odds have dropped below our fair price, the value is gone – leave it.
• Expect losing runs: with a 35% win rate, five losers in a row happens often.

What makes a value spot

Every price hides a chance: odds of 2.50 suggest about 40% (100 divided by 2.50) before the bookmaker's margin. When our model rates the same outcome at 46% or more, the odds are bigger than they should be – and backing generous prices consistently is how value betting pays over time.

Value bets are listed separately from our main predictions because they lose more often. The results record tracks both, so you can see how each performs.