SVTips by Ade Ola · ScoreVoro analystUpdated 16 Nov 2026, 00:06 WAT · Every tip graded on our track record
Our tip
Under 3.5
Strong · fair odds 1.35
74%chance1.30odds8/10rating
Why we like it: Goals are likely, but a combined 2.5 expected still sits clearly below 3.5. Our model puts this at 74%. New Mexico United have not lost in three games, while Sacramento Republic arrive unbeaten in three, winning three. At 1.30 the market agrees with us, so this is a solid rather than spectacular price.
Tips by market
Result138% · @2.70
Double chance1275% · @1.25
Both teams scoreGG55% · @1.80
GoalsUnder 3.574% · @1.30
Correct scoreCS 1–011%
New Mexico United vs Sacramento Republic prediction, form & predicted score
The fixture
Sacramento Republic are on the road in the USL Championship on Monday 16 November, visiting New Mexico United (Rio Grande Credit Union Field at Isotopes Park) at 01:00 WAT. New Mexico United come in 1st with 52 points and Sacramento Republic 2nd with 51 – one top of the pile, the other in the top four. A gap of just 1 point – three points here could swing the table.
Current form
New Mexico United – last 5: WWWLW Latest result: they beat Colorado Springs 4–0 (home). Home form in that spell: 4 wins, 0 defeats in 4. 2.0 goals a game – a dangerous attack right now. 3 clean sheets – a defence that is tough to crack.
Sacramento Republic – last 5: WWWWD Latest result: they beat El Paso Locomotive 2–1 (home). 1.5 scored and 0.8 conceded per game.
Head to head
Previous meeting (27 Sep 2026): New Mexico United 2–3 Sacramento Republic. Head-to-head over 2 games: New Mexico United 1, Sacramento Republic 1, draws 0 – 3.0 goals per game, GG in 1.
Goals outlook
ScoreVoro expected goals: New Mexico United 1.3 – 1.2 Sacramento Republic, about 2.5 in total. Goals outlook is balanced: over 2.5 47%, GG 55%.
Markets to consider
1X2 chances: New Mexico United 38%, draw 25%, Sacramento Republic 37%.
GG/NG: yes – 55% at 1.80.
ScoreVoro tip
Our pick: Under 3.5 goals (74% chance, priced 1.30). Predicted score: New Mexico United 1–0 Sacramento Republic. Graded on the 90-minute score. A tip is a probability, not a promise – 18+, bet responsibly.
Result chances
New Mexico United38%fair 2.60 · @2.70
Draw25%fair 4.00 · @3.40
Sacramento Republic37%fair 2.74 · @2.30
2.50Expected goals
1.34New Mexico United xG
1.16Sacramento Republic xG
55%Both score
47%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
1–011%
0–110%
2–19%
0–08%
1–27%
From our goals model: New Mexico United 1.3 – 1.2 Sacramento Republic expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings
New Mexico United
Sacramento Republic
Attack vs USL Championship average
+23%
+11%
Goals conceded vs average
-21%
-25%
Our expected goals here
1.38
1.07
Our own ratings from every USL Championship result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
What is the prediction for New Mexico United vs Sacramento Republic?
Our tip is Under 3.5 goals (74% chance), priced at 1.30.
Who will win New Mexico United vs Sacramento Republic?
New Mexico United win 38% of the time on our model, the draw 25%, Sacramento Republic 37%.
How many goals will there be in New Mexico United vs Sacramento Republic?
Around 2.5 goals on our projection – 47% for over 2.5 and 55% for both teams to score.
What is the predicted score for New Mexico United vs Sacramento Republic?
ScoreVoro predicts New Mexico United 1–0 Sacramento Republic. Total goals projected: 2.5.
When is New Mexico United vs Sacramento Republic?
New Mexico United vs Sacramento Republic (USL Championship) kicks off on Monday 16 November 2026 at 01:00 (West Africa Time) at Rio Grande Credit Union Field at Isotopes Park.
Numbers from ScoreVoro's team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
