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Portugal: Segunda Liga· Estadio Municipal 25 de Abril Full time

Penafiel vs Lusitânia Lourosa prediction

PenafielWWWLL
1–2
FT xG 1.47 – 1.16
Lusitânia LourosaLDDWD
ScoreVoro prediction · missedHome 2–1Small
Best tipOver 1.572% chance · @1.29
Goals2.6 expectedOver 2.5 48% · BTTS 57%
1 · Penafiel2.3446% chanceX · Draw2.9023% chance2 · Lusitânia Lourosa3.1831% chance
Tips by · ScoreVoro analystUpdated 16 Nov 2026, 00:40 WAT · Every tip graded on our track record
Our tip · Won ✓

Over 1.5

Strong · fair odds 1.39

72%chance1.29odds7/10rating

Why we like it: Both sides together project to 2.6 goals, comfortably over 1.5. Our model puts this at 72%. Penafiel were beaten in their last game, while Lusitânia Lourosa come off a win. At 1.29 there is little value on its own – better as a building block.

Value

1 @ 2.34 – our chance 46% vs 43% in the price (edge +7%)

Tips by market

Result1 ✗46% · @2.34
Double chance12 ✓77% · @1.35
Both teams scoreGG ✓57% · @1.76
GoalsUnder 3.5 ✓73% · @1.25
Correct scoreCS 2–1 ✗9%

Penafiel vs Lusitânia Lourosa prediction, form & predicted score

The fixture

Lusitânia Lourosa are on the road in the Segunda Liga on Sunday 15 November, visiting Penafiel (Estadio Municipal 25 de Abril) at 16:30 WAT. Penafiel come in 1st with 22 points and Lusitânia Lourosa 4th with 19 – one top of the pile, the other in the top four. A gap of just 3 points – three points here could swing the table.

Current form

Penafiel – last 5: WWWLL Latest result: they beat Chaves 3–2 (away). Home form in that spell: 1 win, 2 defeats in 3. 1.8 scored and 1.2 conceded per game.

Lusitânia Lourosa – last 5: LDDWD Latest result: they fell to Feirense 0–1 (away). Away form in that spell: 1 win, 1 defeat in 3. 1.5 scored and 1.2 conceded per game.

Form edge: Penafiel, with 2.0 points per game to 1.5.

Head to head

Previous meeting (16 Feb 2026): Penafiel 2–0 Lusitânia Lourosa.

Goals outlook

ScoreVoro expected goals: Penafiel 1.5 – 1.2 Lusitânia Lourosa, about 2.6 in total. Goals outlook is balanced: over 2.5 48%, GG 57%.

Markets to consider

  • 1X2 chances: Penafiel 46%, draw 23%, Lusitânia Lourosa 31%.
  • GG/NG: yes – 57% at 1.76.
  • Value angle: Penafiel to win at 2.34 – our chance 46%, the price implies 43%.

Our tip

Our pre-match tip was Over 1.5 goals (72% chance, priced 1.29). Predicted score: Penafiel 2–1 Lusitânia Lourosa. Graded on the 90-minute score. A tip is a probability, not a promise – 18+, bet responsibly.

Result chances

Penafiel46%fair 2.19 · @2.34
Draw23%fair 4.29 · @2.90
Lusitânia Lourosa31%fair 3.23 · @3.18
2.63Expected goals
1.47Penafiel xG
1.16Lusitânia Lourosa xG
57%Both score
48%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–112%
1–011%
2–19%
0–18%
2–08%
0–07%

From our goals model: Penafiel 1.5 – 1.2 Lusitânia Lourosa expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match result1 ✗46%2.192.34 ▲
Double chance12 ✓77%1.301.35
Both teams to scoreGG ✓57%1.751.76
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 ✓72%1.391.29
Over/under 2.5 goalsUnder 2.5 ✗52%1.911.73
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 ✓73%1.381.25
Half-time resultHT X ✗43%2.34–
Half-time / full-time1/1 ✗26%3.80–
Correct scoreCS 2–1 ✗9%11.05–

Recent results

Penafiel – last 6

WWWLLW
7 Nov@ Chaves3–2W
2 Novvs Feirense1–0W
24 Oct@ Farense4–1W
17 Octvs Leça0–1L
9 Octvs AVS1–2L
19 Sep@ Oliveirense2–1W
1.8Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5

Lusitânia Lourosa – last 6

LDDWDW
8 Nov@ Feirense0–1L
1 Novvs Farense1–1D
25 Oct@ Felgueiras 19322–2D
18 Octvs Os Limianos2–1W
11 Octvs Chaves1–1D
20 Sep@ Madalena3–1W
1.5Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
83%Both scored
50%Over 2.5

Head to head

16 Feb 2026Penafiel v Lusitânia Lourosa2–0
Penafiel vs Lusitânia Lourosa head-to-head page →

Segunda Liga table

#TeamPWDLGDPts
1Penafiel10712+1222
2Sporting CP B10712+822
3Benfica B10622+620
4Lusitânia Lourosa10541+619
5União de Leiria10523+317
6Academica10514+316
7Tondela10514+216
8Farense10433+315
9Vizela10433+115
10Portimonense10424-314
11AVS10343+113
12Leixoes10325-411
13Torreense10244-310
14Amarante10235-49
15Felgueiras 193210154-38
16FC Porto B10226-108
17Chaves10226-108
18Feirense10127-85

More Segunda Liga predictions

League hub
FT Amarante1Felgueiras 19321 GG 2.01 55%
FT Tondela2Farense0 Under 3.5 1.21 74%
FT Portimonense0Academica0 Under 3.5 1.22 76%
FT Leixoes2Chaves0 1X 1.22 88%

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Penafiel vs Lusitânia Lourosa?

Our tip is Over 1.5 goals (72% chance), priced at 1.29.

Who will win Penafiel vs Lusitânia Lourosa?

Penafiel win 46% of the time on our model, the draw 23%, Lusitânia Lourosa 31%.

How many goals will there be in Penafiel vs Lusitânia Lourosa?

Around 2.6 goals on our projection – 48% for over 2.5 and 57% for both teams to score.

What is the predicted score for Penafiel vs Lusitânia Lourosa?

ScoreVoro predicts Penafiel 2–1 Lusitânia Lourosa. Total goals projected: 2.6.

When is Penafiel vs Lusitânia Lourosa?

Penafiel vs Lusitânia Lourosa (Segunda Liga) kicks off on Sunday 15 November 2026 at 16:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Municipal 25 de Abril.

Numbers from ScoreVoro's team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.