SVTips by Ade Ola · ScoreVoro analystUpdated 15 Nov 2026, 23:17 WAT · Every tip graded on our track record
Our tip
Under 3.5
Strong · fair odds 1.31
76%chance1.25odds8/10rating
Why we like it: Goals are likely, but a combined 2.4 expected still sits comfortably below 3.5. Our model puts this at 76%. At 1.25 there is little value on its own – better as a building block.
Tips by market
Result263% · @1.62
Double chanceX282% · @1.17
Both teams scoreNG50% · @1.67
GoalsUnder 3.576% · @1.25
Correct scoreCS 0–115%
Defensor Sporting vs Penarol prediction, form & predicted score
The fixture
Defensor Sporting v Penarol, Primera División Apertura – Monday 16 November, 00:00 WAT at Estadio Luis Franzini. Here is how the ScoreVoro model sees it. Defensor Sporting come in 13th with 12 points and Penarol 4th with 22 – one in the bottom half, the other in the top four.
Current form
Defensor Sporting – last 5: WDLLL Latest result: they beat Progreso 2–0 (away). Home form in that spell: 0 wins, 2 defeats in 3. 1.5 scored and 1.8 conceded per game.
Penarol – last 5: DLDLD Latest result: they drew with Wanderers 1–1 (home). Away form in that spell: 1 win, 1 defeat in 3. A thin 0.5 goals per game – the goals have dried up.
Head to head
Previous meeting (24 May 2026): Defensor Sporting 0–2 Penarol. Head-to-head over 2 games: Defensor Sporting 0, Penarol 1, draws 1 – 2.0 goals per game, GG in 1.
Goals outlook
ScoreVoro expected goals: Defensor Sporting 0.7 – 1.7 Penarol, about 2.4 in total. Goals outlook is balanced: over 2.5 44%, GG 50%. Both teams' recent matches have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Double chance option: Penarol or draw – 82% at 1.17.
GG/NG: no – 50% at 1.67.
ScoreVoro tip
Our pick: Under 3.5 goals (76% chance, priced 1.25). Predicted score: Defensor Sporting 0–1 Penarol. Graded on the 90-minute score. A tip is a probability, not a promise – 18+, bet responsibly.
Result chances
Defensor Sporting18%fair 5.67 · @4.75
Draw19%fair 5.19 · @3.50
Penarol63%fair 1.59 · @1.62
2.40Expected goals
0.71Defensor Sporting xG
1.69Penarol xG
50%Both score
44%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–115%
0–213%
1–111%
1–29%
0–09%
0–37%
From our goals model: Defensor Sporting 0.7 – 1.7 Penarol expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Defensor Sporting vs Penarol?
Our tip is Under 3.5 goals (76% chance), priced at 1.25.
Who will win Defensor Sporting vs Penarol?
Defensor Sporting win 18% of the time on our model, the draw 19%, Penarol 63%.
How many goals will there be in Defensor Sporting vs Penarol?
Around 2.4 goals on our projection – 44% for over 2.5 and 50% for both teams to score.
What is the predicted score for Defensor Sporting vs Penarol?
ScoreVoro predicts Defensor Sporting 0–1 Penarol. Total goals projected: 2.4.
When is Defensor Sporting vs Penarol?
Defensor Sporting vs Penarol (Primera División Apertura) kicks off on Monday 16 November 2026 at 00:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Luis Franzini.
Numbers from ScoreVoro's team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
